Wednesday, April 08, 2009

wondering about statistics

I am a big believer in marriage. I'm so happy that 4 states now allow gay marriage. I think it's a huge step forward. Obviously there's a long way to go before true marriage equality is achieved. But I'm absolutely giddy that this is happening. Giddy! I tells ya!

But something's been bugging me. I keep seeing this "50% of all marriages end in divorce!" statistic thrown around willy nilly. And all the anecdotal evidence I see is to the contrary. I have a diverse group of married friends and none of us are divorced, nor do any of us seem to be on the verge of divorce. (Unless there's something that nobody is telling me). This 50% rate seems totally bogus and I'm wondering where it came from. The actual rate seems much lower. I did some digging and found out that the later you marry, the better chance you have statistically of staying together.

This bodes well for my friends and I who all got married in their very late 20's or early 30's. And we're mostly not very religious which helps too... Yeah, it turns out that those very conservative wing nuts that are fighting gay marriage tooth and nail have the highest divorce rate of any other group. Hmmmmm...


Anonymous Anonymous said...

Well they wouldn't be getting divorced if GAY people couldn't get married. It's clearly the reason why their marriages fail. If those people can get married too then we're not so special are we?


5:51 PM  
Blogger Downpuppy said...

Half of marriages ending in divorce isn't going to mean half of us middle aged people are divorced. First, the best predictor of divorce is a previous divorce, and a lot of people go through 2 or 3. Second, a lot of people just aren't divorced YET.

If half the people you knew were divorced, the divorce rate would probably be 75% or more.

So you're pretty safe.

8:50 AM  
Anonymous Bconnolly said...

There are a lot of divorces during the first five years of marriage. And many second marriages end in divorce. These skew the results significantly.

5:45 PM  
Blogger Unknown said...

It's time for something new...

2:19 PM  
Blogger Unknown said...

Marriages tends to fail in 21 century because the culture. Free sex, woman at work, and porn media.
Feels boring cause had to much sex with different couple... sex that something exclusive-hard to get become easy to get causing less gratitude if you have a wife or husband that was the only one who 'allowed' to have sex with.
Working woman somehow made man become feels 'lonely' (or even feels trespassed)" and also may creating opportunity having 'two leaders' in one 'house' that may cause tremor in stability.
The last thing is porn industry that creating a sexual exploration all over the atmosphere, that would make a wider prostitution, a common public sexuality (bachelor parties), and a 'sexual appeal' culture that would make everyone look and act like a "bitch".

7:00 PM  

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